Another week, another new set of potential stars and a series of underwhelming performances from players you thought you could trust. We break it all down here into actionable nuggets with insight for the week ahead, and the rest of the season.
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NFL Week 8 Review
Ben Tate found the endzone against the Raiders, but spent most of the day bottled up. What should we make of his struggles? (Photo: Jason Miller/Getty Images North America).
- Cleveland had a terrible week running the ball yet again, following a week in which Ben Tate, Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West averaged 2.3, 2.6 and 1.6 yards respectively. Somehow, Week 8 was worse… their averages this week: 1.6, 1.0, and 1.6 YPC against a previously porous Raiders’ run D. I pointed out Tate’s struggles running the ball on either side of Center last week in the wake of Alex Mack’s injury and the struggles remained in Week 8. Oakland’s defensively front consistently hit Tate and Co. behind the line of scrimmage, leaving no room to run. While it is possible that the new-look line finds a way to gel and makes the most of this zone blocking scheme the rest of the way, I’d be inclined to try to move Tate (who saved his fantasy day with a late five yard touchdown) for an option with a better talent surrounding him.
- The Pittsburgh/Indy contest delivered the anticipated fantasy buffet, with the QBs combining to pass for 922 yards and nine touchdowns. That six of those scores and 522 yards came from Ben Roethlisberger came as a bit of a surprise though, particularly against a Colts defense that had just pitched a shutout. Listen, Big Ben was great and deserves credit for his play this week and through his career… but lets not forget that a week ago folks were calling for OC Todd Haley’s head, so, again… don’t treat this as part for the course. Roethlisberger had a touchdown a piece to Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant before he even looked in Antonio Brown’s direction but the league’s most active receiver wasted no time getting in on the mix, finishing with a 13/10/133 line with two scores to lead the team across the board. Ho-hum… more of the same from Brown. The story of the day for me is the line delivered by Martavis Bryant, who now has three touchdowns in his two active games. Targeted early and often, Bryant appears to become a major feature of the offense – potentially at the expense of the underachieving Markus Wheaton, who had a solid game this week with the above mentioned score and a 5/5/56 line, but hasn’t topped 60 yards since Week 1. Ben’s numbers will come back down to earth next week, so, we won’t see that many targets/yards to go around, and with that as the case I think Wheaton’s targets are in jeopardy.
- Indianapolis saw a rookie receiver emerge in this game as well. With Reggie Wayne inactive, Donte Moncrief found plenty of opportunities for himself en route to 12 targets. Hakeem Nicks had a number of early looks, but didn’t perform well – falling on one route, giving up on what turned into an interception on another, and reeling in just one ball on five looks overall. Meanwhile, Moncrief’s 12/7/113 line was sterling. The difference between Bryant and Moncrief, in terms of rest of season utility is that while they each seems to have leapfrogged the man ahead of him, Reggie Wayne will be back for Indianapolis and cut into Moncrief’s targets while Bryan has a legitimate shot to entrench himself as the Steelers’ number two and is thus the priority waiver add of the group.
- Before getting overly excited about Theo Riddick as a free agent, note that he did all of his work this week as a receiver (three carries, five yards). Now, Riddick looked excellent operating underneath, making every catch look fluid including his one handed grab that helped fuel Detroit’s comeback and is absolutely worth a look if Bush remains out but you should expect him to remain the team’s third option despite the strong outing. Also, this:
Golden Tate: G.
— Jon Collins (@joncollinsFSLR) October 26, 2014
- Jonas Gray did all the work for New England on their opening drive, suggesting that proclamations of his assumption of the ‘big back’ role in New England would come to fruition. When the final bell tolled, Gray’s 17 carries led all backs by a wide margin (five for Vereen, six for James White) and warrants an immediate add in all leagues. He struggled in goal to go situations today, and didn’t look particularly impressive despite a 5.1 YPC average, but he did the job in the middle of the field and kept the offense moving which is plenty to keep him in the role moving forward.
Rob Gronkowski’s monster game should eliminate any concerns about his good health moving forward (Photo: Darren McCollester/Getty Images North America).
- Tom Brady’s first half line: 18/21-203-4TD. Brady came out of the gate on fire and spent most of the day getting it done through Rob Gronkowski. His size was an evident weapon in the red zone, as he scored twice from inside ten yards, but his strength was on display on a 46 yard tackle-shedding touchdown late in the first half. All told, he finished perfect: nine receptions on nine targets for 149 yards. Having topped 60 yards in each of his last four games and has left no doubt about his health, or status as a top-tier TE. Also perfect on the day: Brandon LaFell, 11/11 for 124 and is locked in as a must start receiver, while Julian Edelman again finished with a lacklustre line (four targets, one reception… three of Brady’s five incompletions on the day). I looked like a fool the early part of the season noting that New England would not want to force 150 targets to Edelman again, but with LaFell’s emergence that is proving to be the case. He’ll be a valuable cog to the offense, but relies on volume to be productive for his fantasy owners.
- On your box score, it goes down as an 84 yard gain on 3rd down. On the screen, it was a rookie bonehead move. Sammy Watkins threw up the #1 sign about 15 yards short of paydirt, winding up caught from behind as he slowed down. Still, he’d give a monster final stat line after a long score made good late in the contest. All told, Watkins finished with three receptions on six targets with 157 yards. The six targets were a fairly low number compared to his history with Kyle Orton under Center, but that seems to have been more a function of game flow than anything else. In fact, he wound up with a target on 35.3% of Orton’s 17 passes in Week 8 which represents a tantalizing number of looks in a week where the Bills will call on Orton to pass more often. His targets remained double any other Bills’ WR. In the backfield, Anthony Dixon got all the work in the backfield with 22 carries relative to just seven for Bryce Brown. Neither back ran well (2.0/2.1 YPC).
- The inevitable Vick for Smith replacement came this week, after Geno Smith started 2/8 for five yards with three interceptions. In general, the New York offense was much better with Vick in the game, but he was intercepted as well, and lost two fumbles (putting the ball on the ground at least one other time). Still, his eight carries and 69 yards are enticing from a fantasy perspective. At this point, it is unclear whether New York sees value in moving to Vick as the starter in a lost season or whether they’ll ride out the course with Smith with their eyes toward adding a player through the draft.
- I wrote a piece making note of the fact that Christine Michael was slated for more work this week, with Robert Turbin playing Fullback, but his most noteworthy play was a muffed handoff. Otherwise, he finished with four carries for 12 yards. Those were two more than the carries given to Turbin, who worked largely as a blocker but netted three receptions for 32 yards. Interestingly, in a low scoring game, Marshawn Lynch managed just 14 carries ahead of them for a solid 62 yards. On the other side, Jonathan Stewart ran well: 16-79. Doug Baldwin didn’t pop off your stat sheet, but, his eight target, six reception line made him the most targeted receiver by five looks over Paul Richardson on a day in which Seattle spread the ball around the offense.
- There isn’t much that I can say about Arian Foster other than he is absolutely one of the best backs in the league when he is healthy, the scheme suits his talents and feeds him the ball (in an effort to mitigate Ryan Fitzpatrick’s awfulness) and he’s simply fun to watch. Foster first touchdown looked like a tackle for loss, and wound up as a 34 yard score. Elsewhere for the Texans, DeAndre Hopkins had another solid game (five catches, 95 yards) though his inability to find the endzone (held out for four straight games after scoring in three of his first four) puts a cap on his value.
- In Zach Mettenberger’s first game, Justin Hunter drew a healthy 10 targets (double those of Kendall Wright) though the two would only connect four times and without a garbage time TD would have had an awful day. Mettenberger’s final stat line was fantasy appealing enough (27-41, 299, 2TD, INT) though from a real world perspective, he was awful when the game was still in question and did most of his scoring late. Still, that seems destined to be the case for Tennessee this season with plenty of games to be played from behind. That, of course, is bad news for Bishop Sankey who dominated the carries for Tennessee and ran well enough, but found himself with just nine opportunities given the lopsided score.
- Martellus Bennett made one of the better catches you’ve seen; mauled for pass interference by Brandon Browner, Bennett stayed with the ball going to the ground and made the score.
- Chris Johnson’s first carry came with 19 minutes left in the game. He finished with three carries for seven yards, adding two receptions. Percy Harvin had four carries and three receptions, and clearly will cut into Johnson’s already limited workload. At this point, he isn’t worth the spot on your roster… and it seems he kind of feels like he doesn’t belong on the Jets roster either:
Poet RT @janesports I asked Chris Johnson about the Jets quarterback situation; “I don’t even be in the game, so I don’t know.” — Rummy (@RumfordJohnny) October 26, 2014
- Doug Martin left this week’s contest against Minnesota in the 3rd quarter with an ankle injury of unknown severity. Prior to his departure, he’d carried 10 times for 27 yards and didn’t look particularly effective on any one of them. Bobby Rainey didn’t run any better against the Vikes, though he did add six receptions for 41 yards on six targets and has been a boon in the pass game this year (16 catches, 139 yards). Martin hasn’t topped 50 yards rushing in a game, is now hurt, and may be traded (into a situation where he almost certainly won’t be a lead back). Meanwhile, Charles Sims is eligible to return this week from the IR/return. Rainey is the add for owners in need of immediate help, but Sims could see himself with significant work down the stretch, particularly as the Bucs turn their attention to 2015. Billed as a strong receiver out of the backfield, Sims could see some third down work right away.
- Cordarrelle Patterson didn’t do anything particularly noteworthy, but, was targeted 12 times and totalled 86 receiving yards. Evidently, Patterson left the field in a walking boot but tells us its nothing serious. Jerick McKinnon didn’t pop off the screen at you either, but, he picked up 83 yards on 16 carries for a solid rushing line while Matt Asiata carried the ball four times for one. Asiata did add four catches on five targets for 26 yards.
- Giovani Bernard came into the game with a rib injury and left it with a hip issue of as yet unknown severity. He scored while in the lineup, but posted a 16-45 rushing line… the second straight effort under 3.0 YPC. Its fair to wonder if the carries are starting to take their toll on Bernard, who I’ve always suggested was better as a 12-15 touch secondary option than as a feature back, given his size. Of course, Jeremy Hill didn’t run much better in relief of Bernard, and the offense should look much better upon AJ Green’s return but there is reason to be concerned about Bernard’s rest of season value.
- As was promised when Bernard Pierce was declared a healthy scratch, Lorenzo Taliaferro got (virtually) all the red zone work for Baltimore and scored two touchdowns. More than anything, his work limits the value of Justin Forsett who had another nice day running the ball (17-68), but it seems that the team is making the logical choice to move to the rookie Taliaferro over the ineffective Bernard Pierce and he is certainly worth a roster spot if available.
- The St. Louis Rams will ruin your fantasy hopes and dreams on a weekly basis, simply by spreading the ball around. Five different players (including Austin Davis) had carries, with no one reaching double digits (Tre Mason went 7-32, but Zac Stacy was back in the mix with five carries). It was the same story on offense. Brian Quick left this game early with an arm injury, after netting two targets, and no other pass catcher saw more than four. Austin Davis targeted 10 different pass catchers, despite throwing just 25 times. There aren’t a lot of fantasy points to be had, at least not on a regular basis, with that kind of distribution.
- Lamar Miller had another great, but fantasy-quiet, game. He rushed 14 times for 78 yards, adding three catches for 21 for a just-shy-of 100 total yard outing. Without a TD, many owners won’t notice but Miller ran well this week against a tougher than advertised Jaguars run defense. That was about the only thing that went right for the Dolphins on Sunday.
- On the other side, the Jaguars delivered a few fantasy noteworthy lines. Blake Bortles’ lone touchdown went to Allen Robinson, who finished with five receptions on 10 targets, and has seen 54 balls thrown his way over the last six weeks. Cecil Shorts III was heavily targeted as well, with seven balls thrown his way (securing three). Despite my warnings to the contrary, Denard Robinson had a great game for Jacksonville… his second in a row. With 19 touches for 118 total yards, Robinson paced the Jags – particularly in the first half. With the team trailing late, thanks to two defensive scores by Miami, his workload was cut considerably and that remains the concern with Robinson… Jacksonville is running well when they can commit to it, but they continue to be a team destined to trail in the second half.
- Nick Foles threw the ball 62 times in a game that Philadelphia never trailed by more than one score, which led to a great game from Jeremy Maclin (back in action with his highest target load of the season, after a quiet week heading into the bye), who scored twice on 12 catches and 187 yards receiving. You don’t need me to tell you, as the box score does quite clearly, that Maclin was everywhere in this one… often beating coverage so badly that he could stop and wait for the Nick Foles pass to arrive before taking off in the right direction again. On that note though, and otherwise, Foles was uneven… rushing his throws, throwing off his back foot, and occasionally throwing to the other team. It was far from his finest moment, and it again remains a surprise that the team threw so often despite his obvious struggles. Riley Cooper had another productive game, mind you, with five catches for 88 yards while McCoy ran well enough to deserve more work (21-84). Per Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Shady agrees:
It’s clear LeSean McCoy thought the #Eagles should have run the ball more than they did. “We were gashing them.”
— Jeff McLane (@Jeff_McLane) October 27, 2014
- As a Michael Floyd owner, you’re miserable about his goose egg, and you should be… but, I wouldn’t explicitly treat this as reason to cut ties with him. In fact, there may be a buy low window. Yes, Fitzgerald had a great game (7/10/160, including an impressive 80 yard score) but Floyd was hurt early in this game and clearly wasn’t running at 100% the rest of the way. John Brown picked up his slack, with a 5-5-119-TD performance. Andre Ellington responded to his 30 touch outing last week with a reduced efficiency performance against Philadelphia, with 26 touches for 85 total yards. There was nothing wrong with his output, particularly given that he scored a short yardage touchdown, but it will be worth watching how his efficiency numbers hold up through the middle of the season given his high workload.
- Matt Schaub had a fitting first pass attempt for Oakland, featuring a botched snap and an interception on a deep throw (coming on fourth down). Otherwise, Oakland QBs actually had a pretty good day, with Derek Carr compiling 328 passing yards on 54 attempts with a TD. The score came with seven seconds remaining, but the fantasy points still count for both Carr and receiver Andre Holmes who finished with five receptions, 69 yards and the score. Obviously, you’re running a risk with Holmes (who drew fewer targets than James Jones, Mychal Rivera and surprisingly busy Kenbrell Thompkins) but like the Jags, Oakland will be trailing often (in fact, I think they’re looking like a good 0-16 candidate) and as such, this type of volume will be commonplace for Carr and his wideouts, leading to lots of fantasy potential. On the ground, Darren McFadden had an efficient outing (12-59) while Maurice Jones-Drew was used early as promised by coach Tony Sporano but yielded just eight yards on six carries. McFadden lost a wild fumble that popped up into the arms of Joe Haden, but is the back to own in Oakland (if you own any).
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